Tadeusz SZUBA de l’Université de Cracow, nous présentera ses travaux intitulé ”Formal and computational model for A. Smith’s Invisible Hand paradigm as basis for all new tools for market analysis and prediction”.

Abstract:

A. Smith’s statements provide a clear hint on how to transform humans as market elements, into “business-thinking and planning virtual processor”. Using this processor under concept of molecular model of computations, we are able to convert a market into a specific, nondeterministic, parallel computer. It is an altogether different kind of computer, when comparing it to its digital counterpart – it is most probably much more powerful, but on different scale. It does not use 0/1 Boolean algebra, but rather logic as basic calculus, while processors move around a computational space – they do not take fixed positions. Moreover, computations are driven by an abstract “value” – not by an operating system. This computational nature is very much like a second side of a coin, or another dimension of a market. This idea leads to the perception and formalization of A. Smith's Invisible Hand (ASIH) as a computer: ASIH-computer. It is a self-programming computer able to perform computations not only for market optimization & stabilization, but also acting as “discoverer” of e.g. new technologies necessary for market (technical optimization). The ASIH-computer is specific for each market, since it reflects the given market's nature and mentality of agents. There is also a high probability, that social behavior rules can be discovered by the ASIH-computer (social optimization). Threads of ASIH-computer calculations are not visible by a single agent, since the agent participates only in one or just a few steps of such calculations. Only economists can identify the architecture of this computer and what computations are performed. Perceiving a market as “thinking subject”, will lead to the discovery of completely different tools for market analysis and prediction. It is foreseen that firstly economists, with the help of computations theorists, will construct a simulation model of an ASIH-computer for a given market (approximation). Next, this model will be investigated on what it can calculate, how quickly and in what manner it reacts to market disturbances, etc. The ASIH-computer concept will imply much theoretical research. To tackle this concept, an EU Grant and a team is necessary, comprising of about 80% of economists and 20% computational theorists, over a span of approx. 5 years worth of work. In general, the ASIH-computer is similar to swarm-computer (ants, honeybees); however, agents are much more intelligent.